Expert says still 90% chances for Bitcoin spot ETF approval in Jan 2024

Bloomberg ETF expert shared a new prediction for the potential approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF in 2024.

Bitcoin spot ETF products are financial assets which allow people to invest in Bitcoin directly on behalf of the ETF issuer. Currently no Bitcoin spot ETF product is available in the US. Nearly a dozen Bitcoin spot ETF applications are waiting to seek approval from the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for their applications. 

On 29 Nov 2023, Bloomberg’s senior analyst Eric Balchunas took to X (formerly Twitter) to give a response to people who are asking about the current probability of the potential approval of Bitcoin spot ETF applications. 

Eric said that previously in Oct they predicted that there were 90% chances for these applications to get approval by 10 January 2024 and this is still the same. In short, the probability for these applications to get approval is still 90%.

People asking me if we changed odds. No, we still holding line at 90% odds of approval by Jan 10 (aka this cycle), the same odds we've had for months (before it was cool/safe). What we watching for now: more amended/final filings to roll in and clarity on in-kind vs cash creates https://t.co/uiWgfxOfzz

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) November 29, 2023

In short, we can say that sentiments on Bitcoin spot ETF approvals are still positive despite the several legal developments between the SEC & crypto companies. 

Yesterday Swiss asset manager Pando Asset also joined the fund managers who are waiting for Bitcoin spot ETF applications with the SEC. 

Swiss asset manager Pando Asset has become the latest firm to seek approval for a U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF, filing an S-1 form with the U.S. SEC on Wednesday that will trade on the Cboe BZX exchange, with Coinbase serving as custodian. https://t.co/R3E8xVTvgz

— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) November 30, 2023

On 30 Nov 2023, Grayscale, a digital assets fund manager firm which is also seeking approval to swap its Bitcoin investment fund Green Bitcoin (GBTC) into Bitcoin spot ETF product, introduced some changes in its GBTC product agreement after 5 years. 

With the new agreement related to management fee method, & structure management, Grayscale confirmed that it is in preparation phase for its Bitcoin spot ETF product launch. 

Grayscale updated the GBTC agreement for the first time since 2018, aiming to optimize the structure in preparation for conversion to a Bitcoin spot ETF listing: changing the management fee collection method from monthly to daily and allowing assets to be mixed in omnibus…

— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) November 30, 2023

Bitcoin price action

The current trade price of Bitcoin (BTC) is $37,935 & this trade price is 10.6% higher over the last 30 days of trade price. The 50% increment in the Bitcoin trade price this year was contributed by the news related to Bitcoin spot ETF approval possibilities.

Read also: Coinbase CEO Says SEC Only Wants Crypto Regulation By Enforcement